The Go Ahead Analysis

Political analysis is a huge task for some and a fun for some others. Bhutanese politics and electoral predictions are nightmare. There are not any logic that could really garner the evident data. However the predictions are done through rolling of dice or some other means.

As it was the case my simple survey predicted DNT, DPT and PDP with head to head votes except BKPs of mere qualifying state fund for the next election. The published post however had to be removed upon the complaints from some BKP leaders accusing of misleading.

I strongly felt there wasnot any basis for misleading as it was merely a prediction or guess. But for the sake of respecting electoral period, I removed the post. Although I wished BKP won, the truth must prevail, I did not think Bhutanese would accept a Women PM or so much the force of Anti Corruption. I personally have high regard to Dasho Neten but sorry for BKP, the BKP way is not effective this time around. That was it and BKP score was a mere 9.7% of the Votes.

Now, DNT and DPT gave a head to head shot brutally leaving the master PDP behind. This is democracy, any one of us can be a government and any one us can be thrown out in the street. I offer my solemn consolation to Dasho Tshering Tobgay for his dynamic leadership. If not better, he has not been worse from any other PMs. The graceful acceptance tells us all about the leadership unlike DPTs 2013 hue and cry of 1907, 2013.

As analysis are coming of who may win the government chamber from two, most people expects DPT who already have seven un-contendable seats booked. DPT having won 22 constituencies looks likely with only 2 seats short to form the government.  However, I look at these two elections, primary and general a complete different phase of elections. It would not be a surprise if DNT pulls out all 3 seats from Pema Gatshel, as I have said, our voters are unpredictable.

People have already begun to talk about the demerits of electing opposition members from their own constituency. The Tshelingore Pema Gatshel Highway is not better than a Feeder Roads although Gypsum has been one Economic Pump for the nation. The water problem has hitted them hardest. Probably Pema Gatshelpas may opt to vote for DNT having experienced the ignorance of the past two goverments. Also having been taught a lesson of uselessness of their constituency representative as opposition members.

I must say, the election is still unpredictable. Even if the PDP voters opt to vote for DPT, there is still a chance that some DPT voters will be swayed towards DNT. People have time to analyse what realy is a Bridging the Gap and How health is fundamental need of our life. Equity and Justice has been with them for around a decade now. Owing to our people's mindset of opting for a new, DNT has a fair chance to form the Government. It also may opt to have a young candidates in a ministers berth.The new ideas on new times may come back rolling from aside.

DPT on other hand having a root deep support base in eastern dzongkhags where bunch of constituencies occupy, may easily approach the margin of goverment formation. Even if it looses, the oppostion may be of herd-bulky hard performing candidates of around 20 or nearly.

Whatever the elections may be, we are Bhutanese. May the Peace Prevail.